Fuzzy cognitive mapping to support multi-agent decisions in development of urban policymaking

The awareness about environmental complexity involves real-time knowledge and demands urban planning initiatives. Knowledge is multiform, multi-agent and mirrors environmental complexity. Problems characterizing urban sustainability particularly claim non-expert knowledge, being informal, puzzling, uncertain, incomplete, hard to be handled, formalized, modelled. This study utilizes Fuzzy cognitive maps to explore such complexity and support multiagent decisions. It concerns the scenario-building process of the new plan of Taranto (Italy), a paradigmatic example of decaying industrial area, heavily characterized by social fragmentation and environment degradation. This approach aims at structuring environmental problems, modelling future strategies and contributing to build a multi-agent decision support system for complex urban planning contexts

The importance of eliciting stakeholders’ system boundary perceptions for problem structuring and decision-making

Differences in system boundaries and problem framings are unavoidable in multi-organisational decision-making. Unstructured problems, such as the grand challenges, are characterised by the existence of multiple actors with different perspectives and conflicting interests, and they require a coordinated effort from multiple organisations. Within this context, this paper aims to understand stakeholders’ perceptions of system boundaries and problem framings, and their potential effects on decision-making by systematically comparing different stakeholder groups’ causal maps around the same shared concern. Bridging notions from Operational Research, System Dynamics and Organisational Studies, the comparison is based on a novel type of thematic analysis of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) built with each stakeholder group on their perceptions of a given system. The proposed integrated approach combines qualitative with quantitative analysis, such as the centrality of the variables and the structure of the CLDs. Such CLDs comparison provides an intuitive way to visualise differences and similarities of the thematic clusters of variables, underlining factors influencing the shared concern. This could be considered a starting point for more shared understanding as well as more integrated holistic perceptions of the system and, consequently, a more systemic decision-making. Furthermore, for the sake of replicability, this paper also presents a qualitative participatory System Dynamics modelling process aimed to define the key aspects of a problem for each group of stakeholders to support a collaborative multi-organisational decision-making process. The research is based on the activities carried out for an urban regeneration case study in Thamesmead, London, United Kingdom

Organizational maturity for co-creation: Towards a multi-attribute decision support model for public organizations

The paper conceptualizes a multi-attribute decision support model for the assessment of organizational maturity for co-creation, specifically for public organizations. This is achieved on the basis of a systematic literature review (i.e. content analysis) and analysis of two European case studies of promising collaborative practices (from UK and Slovenia). The co-creation drivers and barriers elicited from these two sources are integrated in a decision support model, thus setting the layout of a multi-attribute decision support model for the assessment of organizational maturity for co-creation. The final model conceptualized here consists of 25 attributes or criteria grouped into three categories: organization capacity, staff capacity, and a wider political and normative context in which public organizations act

Drinking water supply in resilient cities: Notes from L'Aquila earthquake case study

Disasters impacts on urban environment are the result of interactions among natural and human systems, which are intimately linked each other. What is more, cities are directly dependent on infrastructures providing essential services (Lifeline Systems, LS). The operation of LS in ordinary conditions as well as after disasters is crucial. Among the LS, drinking water supply deserves a critical role for citizens. The present work summarizes some preliminary activities related to an ongoing EU funded research project. The main aim of the paper is to define a System Dynamic Model (SDM) to assess the evolution of resilience of a drinking water supply system in case of natural disasters, with particular attention to the role of both ‘structural’ and ‘non-structural’ parameters. Reflections are carried out on L’Aquila (Italy) case study, since drinking water infrastructures were significantly stressed during the 2009 earthquake, causing a limited functionality in the aftermath of the event. Furthermore, the reallocation of citizens in temporary shelters determined a change in the demand pattern, requiring a dynamic adaptation of the infrastructure. Based on an innovative approach to resilience, the model was developed also to simulate different emergency management scenarios, corresponding to different disaster management strategies

Enhancing nature-based solutions acceptance through stakeholders' engagement in co-benefits identification and trade-offs analysis

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are increasingly recognized as a valid alternative to grey infrastructures - i.e. hard, human-engineered structures – as measures for reducing climate-related risks. Increasing evidences demonstrated that NBS can reduce risks to people and property as effectively as traditional grey infrastructures, but potentially offering many additional benefits, e.g. improving the natural habitat for wildlife, enhancing water and air quality, improving socio-cultural conditions of communities. The growing attention on the NBS, triggered an increasing interest in developing integrated and multi-disciplinary frameworks for assessing NBS effectiveness accounting for the co-benefits production. Starting from the analysis of the existing frameworks, this work claims for a more direct engagement of stakeholders – i.e. co-benefits beneficiaries – in developing NBS assessment framework. This work aims at demonstrating that differences in co-benefits perception and valuation might lead to trade-offs and, thus, to potential conflicts. An innovative methodology using a quasi-dynamic Fuzzy Cognitive Map approach based on multiple-time-steps was developed in order to assess NBS effectiveness, and to detect and analyze trade-offs among stakeholders due to differences in co-benefits perception. The developed methodology was implemented in the Lower Danube case study. The trade-off analysis among stakeholders shows that they are quite low in the short term. Most of the potential conflicts can be detected in the long term, involving mainly the stakeholders that assigned a high value to the agricultural productivity variable. The results demonstrated that accounting for the different stakeholders' perception of the co-benefits is key for reducing trade-offs and enhance NBS acceptability

Integrating Problem Structuring Methods And Concept-Knowledge Theory For An Advanced Policy Design: Lessons From A Case Study In Cyprus

Evidence suggests that policies frequently fail due, on the one side, to a simplification of the uncertainty and complexity associated with stakeholders’ problem-understanding and, on the other side, due to the lack of methodologies for innovative generation of policy alternatives. This work describes a methodology based on the integration of Problem Structuring Methods and Concept-Knowledge Theory as a mean to transform ambiguity in problem-framing from a barrier to an enabling factor in collaborative settings. This methodology supports the generative design process for innovative and consensual policies. The methodology was implemented for a case of designing water management policy in the Republic of Cyprus

Organizational readiness for co-creation of public services in the central and eastern european administrative tradition: Development of the conceptual multi-attribute decision support model

Co-creation of public services and policies is considered a promising practice of re-shaping the traditional relationship between the state and its citizens, businesses and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Nevertheless, there are also warnings that the implementation of the process of co-creation could fail. A possible reason is that the organization is not ready or sufficiently mature to implement the process of co-creation. This paper addresses co-creation drivers and barriers identified through systematic literature review and analysis of case studies from two Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The aim of this paper is to provide practitioners from CEE countries with a conceptual multi-attribute decision support model for evaluating the organizational readiness for co-creation. The methodological framework consists of three steps. The first two steps, content analysis (i.e. literature review) and case-study analysis, were used to identify and analyze drivers and barriers, which are then used in the last step to develop the conceptual multi-attribute decision support model. The developed model consists of 26 attributes grouped into three categories: Capacity of the organization, drivers and barriers related to internal (public organization) co-creators, and context related drivers and barriers. The key points for practitioners are: •Co-creation drivers and barriers affect organizations at the beginning of their co-creation journey (i.e. in identifying the key co-creation success factor at the organizational level); •Co-creation drivers and barriers serve as guidance to organizations that were unsuccessful in co-creation; •The conceptual model supporting the evaluation of co-creation readiness serves as a tool to those that consider implementing co-creation; •The model offers an insight into a possible methodology for evaluation of readiness in different areas; •For practitioners from the CEE region, co-creation drivers and barriers, together with the conceptual multi-attribute decision support model supporting the evaluation of co-creation readiness, offer a roadmap to successful co-creation

Data-Driven Epidemic Intelligence Strategies Based on Digital Proximity Tracing Technologies in the Fight against COVID-19 in Cities

In a modern pandemic outbreak, where collective threats require global strategies and local operational defence applications, data-driven solutions for infection tracing and forecasting epidemic trends are crucial to achieve sustainable and socially resilient cities. Indeed, the need for monitoring, containing, and mitigating the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has generated a great deal of interest in Digital Proximity Tracing Technology (DPTT) on smartphones, as well as their function and effectiveness and insights of population acceptance. This paper introduces and compares different Data-Driven Epidemic Intelligence Strategies (DDEIS) developed on DPTTs. It aims to clarify to what extent DDEIS could be effective and both technologically and socially suitable in reaching the objective of a swift return to normality for cities, guaranteeing public health safety and minimizing the risk of epidemic resurgence. It assesses key advantages and limits in supporting both individual decision-making and policy-making, considering the role of human behaviour. Specifically, an online survey carried out in Italy revealed user preferences for DPTTs and provided preliminary data for an SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) epidemiological model. This was developed to evaluate the impact of DDEIS on COVID-19 spread dynamics, and results are presented together with an evaluation of potential drawbacks

Further development of The Ebbsfleet Water Management System Dynamics Model: Adjusting representation of processes and system boundaries, incentivising stakeholder re-engagement, and exploring the potential for University teaching

This is the final version. Available from WIT Press via the DOI in this record. System Dynamics Model (SDM) that explores sustainable urban water management. The model is open-source compiled using Vensim software, which is free for non-commercial use. This paper demonstrates that the current SDM and the modelling approach are open to adjustment, which is illustrated by introducing a link between water tariffs and environmental awareness. The increase in water tariffs leads not only to the obvious increase in water bills, but also to an increase in Environmental Awareness, and consequently, to increases in the use of water efficiency devices, grey water acceptability, and grey water reuse. A range of further modifications is suggested, including expanding representation of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) to consider resultant improvements in stormwater quality as well as quantity. This would recognise the indirect benefits of improved stormwater quality on biodiversity in the River Ebbsfleet, which is the receiving watercourse. This study intends to encourage knowledge transfer, by facilitating and incentivising the use and further development of the SDM by stakeholders and a wider community of end-users, including practitioners, academics and the public. While SDM is particularly suited to analysis of indirect relations, benefits and trade-offs among system constituents, other approaches provide viable alternatives and we discuss the potential for re-implementing our findings in other interactive modelling software packages and programming languages. We also explore the scope for linking the adapted SDM to other models. Finally, we consider the utility of the Ebbsfleet SDM in teaching, learning and knowledge transfer. We conclude that students, practitioners and other stakeholders could not only enhance their understanding of urban water management complexity, but also gain valuable system modelling skills based on using the SDM to support kinaesthetic learning. Ultimately, society benefits when the level of knowledge and analytical thinking skills of its members are enhanced.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

A participatory process to support sustainable water resources management in the Ebbsfleet Garden City

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IAHR via the link in this recordThe present work describes the development of a participatory System Dynamics Model (SDM) aiming to explore sustainable urban water management (UWM) in a structured way and to understand where policy interventions might be best focused. The proposed multi-step process is useful for supporting decision-making at a strategic, system-wide level and for exploring the long-term consequences of alternative strategies. The strongly participatory base of the SDM allows both to include local knowledge held by relevant stakeholders, and to support a collective learning process, which should improve the effectiveness of the selected strategies. In the following sections on the SDM co-development to enhance sustainable urban water management in the Ebbsfleet Garden City are provided.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC